📉 Mortgage Rate Forecast: What Comes Next in 2025?

With mortgage rates hovering in the mid‑6% range, buyers and refinancers remain on edge. Here’s what the experts are projecting for the remainder of 2025—and how Sun National Title Company can help clients navigate these shifting waters.

🔍 Expert Forecasts: What the Numbers Say

Based on recent data, leading housing analysts anticipate:

• Fannie Mae expects 30‑year fixed rates to average around 6.6–6.8% for most of 2025, dipping slightly to 6.5–6.6% by year‑end whatsmypayment.com+1propertyonion.com+1.

• The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecasts a gentle slide from 6.9% in Q1 to 6.5–6.6% by Q4 reddit.com+2whatsmypayment.com+2linkedin.com+2.

• Wells Fargo projects a quarter‑by‑quarter decrease: Q1 – 6.65%, Q2 – 6.45%, Q3 – 6.25%, Q4 – 6.30% thetruthaboutmortgage.com+1linkedin.com+1.

• Redfin and HousingWire foresee a broad range, keeping most of 2025 within the 5.75–7.25% spread reddit.com+7whatsmypayment.com+7housingwire.com+7.

In summary, most forecasts expect rates to dip toward the mid‑6% range, but none are calling for a dramatic plunge to pandemic‑era levels.

🧭 Key Drivers: What’s Steering Rates?

1. Federal Reserve Policy:The Fed remained steady at 4.25–4.5% in mid‑June, and continues signaling only two modest rate cuts in 2025 thetruthaboutmortgage.com+9businessinsider.com+9whatsmypayment.com+9linkedin.com+7ft.com+7whatsmypayment.com+7. But lowered Fed rates don’t automatically translate to lower mortgage rates.

2. Treasury Yields & Spreads:Mortgage rates closely follow the 10‑year Treasury. Expected Treasury yield ranges (3.4–4.5%) combined with mortgage spread behavior suggest rates may stabilize or modestly fall nasb.com+2thetimes.co.uk+2theguardian.com+2housingwire.com.

3. Inflation & Job Market:Inflation remains above target. With core PCE around 2.8%, the Fed will move cautiously theguardian.com+15ft.com+15businessinsider.com+15reddit.com+3reddit.com+3businessinsider.com+3. Labor market strength supports high rates, while easing data could soften them.

4. Lock‑in Effect & Inventory:Millions are “locked in” to low pandemic-era mortgages, suppressing housing supply. As that effect fades, transactional activity may increase—adding complexity but not necessarily changing rate trends nasb.com+1reddit.com+1bankrate.com+11businessinsider.com+11reddit.com+11.

📅 Quarter‑by‑Quarter Outlook

Period	Projected 30‑Year Rate	Key Drivers
Q3 2025	~6.3–6.5%	Treasury yields may dip; inflation cooling
Q4 2025	~6.2–6.5%	Fed cuts take effect & year-end moves increase
End of 2025	~6.0–6.4%	MBA and Fannie Mae forecasts converge here